The biggest variable in L&D ROI isn't the programme cost - it's the behaviour transfer rate. A conventional workshop might transfer learning to changed behaviour in 10–15% of participants (Baldwin & Ford, 1988 - still the most cited figure in transfer research). A well-designed serious game with structured debrief can reach 60–80%. That difference changes everything about what your training budget actually buys.
Your Numbers
Fill in what you know. The calculator will show you what each intervention actually delivers.
What Each Approach Delivers
(assuming 15% transfer rate)
(assuming 65% transfer rate)
Assumptions used in this calculation:
- Conventional workshop behaviour transfer rate: 15% (Baldwin & Ford, 1988; consistent with subsequent meta-analyses)
- Serious game transfer rate: 65% (an illustrative assumption, not a measured figure - a structured debrief and commitment-setting push transfer well above passive formats, but your real rate will vary)
- Productivity gain applies to salary cost as a proxy for output value
- One-year horizon; no compounding
This calculator is a starting point, not a precision tool. Actual transfer rates vary by game design, debrief quality, and post-session reinforcement. The point is to show how much the transfer rate variable dominates the ROI calculation - more than the programme cost.
What This Means in Practice
The ROI difference comes almost entirely from transfer rate. A programme that costs 50% less but transfers to 15% of participants produces less value than a programme that costs more but transfers to 65%. Cost is not the variable that matters most. Transfer is.
What drives transfer rate in serious games:
- The experience is real, not described. Participants make actual decisions under actual pressure. The memory of what they did is more durable than a slide about what they should do.
- The debrief names specific behaviour. Not "you need to communicate better" - "in round 3, you held information that your partner needed to make the right call, and the team lost because of it." Specific. Observed. Hard to dismiss.
- Commitment is made before leaving the room. Named action, named situation, named date. Not an intention - a contract made in public.
If you're an L&D head evaluating where to put your programme budget, the question isn't "how much does a serious game cost?" It's "what does it cost me to run an intervention with a 15% transfer rate versus one with a 65% transfer rate?"
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